with the development of global economic integration and the new normal of china's economic development, china's agricultural development faces increasing difficulties. recently we in hebei, liaoning, and chongqing research shows that the future agricultural development must face the international field of vision, set up systemic idea, find focus, earnestly implement the supply side structural reform, innovation system and mechanism, explore agricultural development new ideas.
new characteristics of agricultural development
due to the international and domestic deep fusion of two resources and two markets, in particular, the new idea, the new mode of economic development, new technology constantly to permeate "three agriculture", agricultural development presents the following new features:
(1) the agricultural industry structure presents the phenomenon of "28 phenomena"
in 2014, the total output value of agriculture (primary industry) was 10.2 trillion yuan. the total output value of the four types of agricultural products of grain and cotton oil was about 2 trillion, and for the first time in recent years, it has fallen to only 20% of the total agricultural output value. because these four kinds of agricultural production cost high, comparative benefit is low, if according to industry added value calculates less than 20. while the area sown to the four kinds of agricultural products account for more than 80% of agricultural planting area, means eighty percent of the arable land contributed twenty percent of agricultural production, agricultural industrial structure presents the law of bartlett, namely "28 phenomena". there are three reasons for this: one is that the prices of agricultural commodities have fallen, and the productive benefits have fallen significantly. in 2015, the average price of agricultural commodities fell 15 per cent compared with the same period last year, and the total output value of the output of the four categories of agricultural products, such as grain, oil and sugar, fell to 17 per cent. second, the emergence of high efficiency agriculture industry new business state. containers such as saline-alkali land desertification grassland planting alfalfa, fish, marine blue agriculture and soilless hydroponic fruit and vegetable, etc., these industries less cultivated land, high output value per acre, compared with the oil sugar production efficiency is higher. third, characteristic agriculture develops rapidly. such as the yangtze river aggregate, jianxi xiang-gui citrus producing, bohai bay and jin but so do dungans apple production area, southeast coastal fishery advantage, belt, and peanuts, tea, red jujube, efficiency is higher than field crops.
(ii) industrial integration and development has become a new growth point of rural economy
we often say that agriculture is relatively low efficiency, but on the basis of this 10 trillion agricultural output, the main business of agricultural products processing industry in 2014 reached 23 trillion yuan, which is the pillar industry of the national economy. the ratio of total output value of agricultural products to agricultural output is 2.3:1. compared with the developed countries 3.7:1, there is still a lot of room for development. since 2012, although the whole social fixed assets investment growth slowed markedly, but the agricultural product processing industry has maintained a double-digit growth of investment in fixed assets, among them, 2012-2015, agricultural products processing industry over the same period of investment in fixed assets investment in fixed assets is 1.8, 5.4, 3.5 and 2.1%, its production and rapid growth. if the tertiary industry related to agriculture is included, the comparative benefit of agriculture is not low. for example, hebei jinsha river group co., ltd., with a grain output value of 1200 yuan per mu, can be increased by 170% and 234.5% respectively by processing the noodles and slices. jinsha river industry directly drives more than 3,000 farmers in the local area, and the product dealer system leads to the employment of nearly 10,000 people.
in addition, the rise of "internet " modern agriculture has also become a powerful means to promote industrial integration. in 2014, total sales of agricultural products exceeded 100 billion yuan, up by more than 30% in 2015. in addition to the agricultural e-commerce platform, there are also new formats such as agribusiness, agribusiness, agricultural socialization service platform, and "internet " rural tourism.
relying on non-farm income, it is difficult to keep farmers continuously increasing their income
in 2015, the per capita disposable income of rural residents was 11,422 yuan. among them, the rural residents per capita salary income of 4600 yuan, increased by 10.8%, compared to the same business net income of 4504 yuan, up 6.3%, wage income was more than net income, to become the largest source of income for the farmers. but, in the background of the transformation and upgrading of economic structure and the decline in gdp growth, the migrant workers employment opportunities are fewer and fewer, statistics show that 2015 migrant worker rose only 0.4%, increasing number of migrant workers home, on the same train of thought on non-farm income is difficult to maintain the farmers' income continues to grow. at the same time, the prices of major agricultural products such as grain are falling, and it is increasingly difficult to rely on grain production and price hikes to ensure that farmers continue to increase their income.
(4) transformation of agricultural production from production to consumption oriented
in the past two years, the demand for agricultural products and food is no longer in the traditional primary products, and diversified, high quality, safe agricultural products and food are favored. under the action of market mechanism, the production of agricultural products has been gradually shifted from the traditional production to the consumption oriented. for example, the market share of green, organic and other agricultural products and quality and safe food has steadily increased, driven by the structure of consumer demand. driven by the demand of baking industry, wheat is divided into three types: strong, middle and weak in planting, processing and selling. influenced by the demand of feed industry and starch processing, the planting and processing of corn have formed the keratin, powder type and compound type. affected by the industrialization of potato staple food, different areas are cultivated for different varieties.
(5) consumers have more demand for safe agricultural products
consumers are concerned about food safety. because there are a few agricultural products in the production process of chemical fertilizer, agriculture, feed additives, such as irrational use, as well as soil and air pollution problems, make the residual existing in chinese agricultural products, animal products and processed, and combined with relevant departments to monitor lax supervision, the quality and safety of agricultural products and food events often occur. especially some news media coverage is not comprehensive, make consumers for domestic agricultural products to form the thinking formulary of low quality, not safe, and agricultural products and food popular abroad, china's market share is getting higher and higher, should cause high attention.
second, agricultural development faces grave challenges
at present, agricultural development in china is facing the severe challenge of external and external problems, which is embodied in the following aspects:
(a) in some areas, grain production has been turned into losses and food security is seriously threatened
because of high inventories and global oversupply, prices of major agricultural commodities such as grain continue to hover. at the same time, china's grain production cost presents the price rigidity. statistics show that the yield per mu of rice in china was 947 yuan in 2015, 681 yuan for corn, 587 yuan for wheat and 406 yuan for soybeans. if land costs, labor costs and depreciation are included, food production is almost unprofitable. young farmers believe that "food is not promising" and migrant workers are the first choice. the main purpose of farming in the middle and old age is to support their parents and grandchildren. even the large grain farmers and family farms have to reduce the size of grain and increase the area of the economic crop due to the low yields. in addition, because the land transfer contract is not standard, the land circulation price mechanism has not yet been established, cause food is difficult to increase business scale, rely on scale to difficult cost reduction, food security is still grim.
(2) the comparative advantage of agricultural production factors has been declining, which poses a serious threat to the export of advantageous agricultural products
firstly, the traditional low cost advantage of labor force is losing. in recent years, china's labor costs rose by about 10% a year, according to the investigation of hubei province shows that agricultural workers cost about 150 yuan/day in 2013, 2014 to 180 yuan/day, 2015 of 200 yuan/day, and the productivity of labor is not synchronous, labor-intensive agricultural products export competitiveness weakening. taking the most competitive fruits and vegetables as an example, the growth rate of vegetables continued to decline from 2013 to 2015, with year-on-year growth of 16.2%, 7.9% and 6.2%, respectively. the decline in fruit from 2013 to 2015 was a steady decline of $2.16 billion, $1.06 billion and $1.02 billion respectively. second, along with the advancement of urbanization, the cultivated land area is decreasing, agricultural inputs prices are soaring and agricultural production cost is high, add water and soil pollution and ecological factors restricted the agricultural sustainable development. again, owing to the high cost of agricultural credit, mortgage guarantee system is not sound, industry support agriculture capital strength is not strong, make capital intensive agricultural products competitive advantage decline, coupled with lack of agricultural science and technology to the agricultural industry development driving force, the agricultural insurance system is not sound and so on, led to the decrease of the agricultural competitiveness in china tend to be together.
(3) the prices of most agricultural products are hanging upside down at home and abroad, and the industrial security is seriously threatened
in recent years, the import of agricultural products has been increasing rapidly due to the widening of the spread of agricultural products. from 2013 to 2015, grain imports rose 124.3 percent from 14.58 million tons to 327.10 million tons. some food substitutes, such as barley imports of 107.32 million tons in 2015, rose by 98.3 percent, as there was no tariff quota. the import of sorghum was 107.0.0 million tons, an increase of 85.3%. corn liquor (ddgs) imported 6821,000 tons, up 26.0%. these imports have replaced feed corn, which has become a structural surplus, causing national reserves to swell. in addition, high food prices in china have increased production costs for food processing and livestock production, squeezing profit margins.
cotton, oil, sugar and other agricultural products have been linked to domestic and foreign prices, as well as import substitution effects. for example, in - - the new free trade area, such as in australia, while maintaining the cotton import tariffs, but because of deep cuts in the cotton balls, cotton, cotton, cotton yarn, such as tariffs, the enterprise can be directly to import more cheap cotton products, domestic cotton spinning enterprises suffered serious impact. the domestic production cost of sugar and vegetable oil is higher than that of australia and canada, which seriously affects the development of domestic processing enterprises and farmers' interests.
due to the cost of feed, rising labor wages and low labor productivity, the domestic and foreign differences in production costs of livestock products are expanding. domestic pork production costs are about 50 per cent higher than in the us, and raw milk is nearly twice as expensive as international prices. in 2015 alone, pork imports were 778 thousand tons, an increase of 37.8 percent year-on-year. beef imports 47.40 million tons, up 59.0% year on year.
in recent years, due to the spread of the spread of domestic and foreign prices, it has caused "foreign goods to enter the market, domestic goods to enter the warehouse", agricultural industry security is seriously threatened.
(4) the wto's low tariff quota system has transformed the free trade area into zero tariff, and the agricultural competitiveness is seriously threatened
according to the fta agreement, in addition to products such as grain and oil sugar, most of the imported agricultural products will achieve zero tariff after the tax cut period. at present our country has signed 12 free trade area, especially - in china - asean, australia, and three - new free trade area, greatly reduces the average tariff of china's agricultural imports, including fruits, vegetables, meat, eggs, dairy products, aquatic products such as agricultural products will be in the transitional period rate gradually reduced to zero. among them, the highest degree of openness is the china-asean free trade area, and the tariff on agricultural products such as grain, oil and sugar will be cut significantly by 2018. asean's tropical fruit, rice, rubber, chicken and other agricultural products have severely squeezed agricultural production in the provinces of guangdong, hainan and guangxi. will further expand the range of the 2016 world free trade zone, trade standards will continue to improve, such as the tpp will produce zero tariff, sps (animal and plant health inspection and quarantine measures) to standardise, environmental protection and labour standards are listed as free trade terms. due to china's accession to the wto agricultural average tariff is less than 1/4 of the world's average level, under the condition of congenital deficiency in the agricultural competitiveness, coupled with the lack of necessary protection measures china's agriculture, price low quality of foreign agricultural products will be poured into the domestic market.
(5) the transfer of some of the remaining items into agricultural three-dimensional pollution will seriously threaten the quality and safety of agricultural products
agriculture itself increasingly serious pollution, chemical fertilizers, pesticides, feed additives, such as irrational use, agricultural, veterinary drug residue and excessive events happens quite often, poultry and animal feces pollution membrane residues, restricted the agricultural sustainable development. in addition, due to the development of industrialization and urbanization, the problem of agricultural pollution has been caused by the excessive use of the products, which has been transformed into many aspects and three-dimensional pollution. according to the national soil pollution investigation to the communique, the farmland soil polluted by heavy metals and organic matter, point which reaches 19.4%, the mild, mild, moderate and severe pollution level ratio of 13.7%, 2.8%, 1.8% and 2.8% respectively. according to the survey, the total area of sewage irrigation in china accounts for about 6.65% of the total irrigated area, which results in the accumulation and overshoot of all kinds of pollutants in the soil. a large number of industrial wastewater has been flowing into the sea of rivers and lakes, resulting in billions of dollars in damage to the water industry each year.
for agricultural products, the origin of the ecological environment is the basic factor to determine the quality and safety of agricultural environmental pollution not only affects the quality and safety of agricultural products, and has become an important factor of china's agricultural exports, exports of agricultural products often encounter green barriers to trade in our country. the issue of agricultural products and food safety caused by ecological environment pollution has aroused great concern of society.
iii. strategic choice for agricultural development
in the face of severe challenges, agricultural development must set up new ideas, stand at the international level, combine our country's reality, and make strategic choices according to the decision-making and deployment of the cpc central committee.
(a) to promote the structural reform of agricultural supply side, and handle the relationship between "stable grain" and "increase income"
industrial prices look at demand, agricultural prices look at supply. based on the emergence of agriculture "28 phenomena", at present, oil and other agricultural products depend on the output and sugar prices way of promoting the farmers' income is very difficult, especially the food and agriculture income growth more difficult. in this regard, we should follow the principle of "basic grain self-sufficiency, absolute safety of grain ration", and take the road of "high yield, high quality, high efficiency, ecology and safety". we will energetically foster the main body of food production and operation, and make it cost-effective to scale, support agricultural science and technology, and benefit science and technology. we will make full use of both domestic and foreign markets and two resources to adjust the surplus of grain varieties. we will strengthen communication among large grain producers to stabilize domestic food supply and market prices in the form of forward contracts. for grain production, according to the characteristics of its public goods, the corresponding subsidy should be given, so that the yield of grain is close to the average income level of planting economy crops. on the basis of "stable grain", the agricultural industry structure should be adjusted and adjusted to improve the efficiency of agricultural operation and increase farmers' income. agricultural product processing industry is able to absorb enough labor, should with pew and stronger communities in farm products processing industry, encourage the development of the 123 industrial convergence, increase farmers' salary income, farmers income from production, not only can also from the second and tertiary industry to increase income. we will formulate preferential policies to establish special protection mechanisms for agricultural products such as grain, oil and sugar.
(2) seize the opportunity to promote "internet " modern agriculture
"internet " can effectively improve the level of rural organization, the farmers dispersed accumulate individualized demand and supply, through various network platform agglomeration effect of scale, promote division of labor in agriculture of counter-measures, implementation and facilitation services for farmers, and promote the development of agricultural industrial structure adjustment and industrial integration. can be mainly from the following five aspects: the "internet " modern agriculture development: one is through the internet to build social service system, improve the rural organization scale, strive to solve the rural household contract responsibility system long-standing "insufficient points more, the system" problem. agricultural supplies electricity, 2 it is through the internet development of agricultural information service, produce electricity, the quality and safety of agricultural products traceability formats, new services such as link before, during and after agriculture, to realize the 123 industrial convergence. third, we will build a new type of rural financial system through the internet, and provide a diversified and diversified financing plan to solve the problems of the main loans in rural markets. fourth, we will promote the transfer of property rights in rural areas through the internet. fifth, with the help of the internet, and fully give play to the role of popularizing agricultural science and technology service platform, the popularizing agricultural scientific research personnel, technical personnel and combine the new type of agricultural management main body and so on, providing advanced production technology for rural and agricultural science and technology talents.
(iii) developing the collective economy and addressing the challenges posed by regional economic integration
the integration of regional economy will make the farmers of our country and the industrial group of agricultural power be in the same competition position, it is very unfair to our country farmer. the interests of farmers must be prevented from being infringed by many bilateral free trade agreements. due to the development of internet, internet of things, cloud computing and other technologies, the marginal cost of cooperation and sharing tends to zero, and the development of cooperative collective economy has great potential. we should give full play to the advantages of socialist market economy, organize farmers to carry out cooperative operation and deal with the challenges of regional economic integration. but the survey shows that a serious lack of the local rural collective economic organizations, the collective assets of power loss, only "points", no "system", the collective economy "shell" phenomenon is relatively common. according to the people's daily survey, the "empty shell" phenomenon of the central and western provinces is more prominent. in view of the development experience of japan and the rok, it is suggested that we should take "one village, one country, one country and one industry" as the grasp and fill in the absence of the collective economic organization and develop the rural cooperative economy.
the development of "one village, one country and one industry" is an important measure to promote the integration and development of the first and second three industries, absorb the agricultural labor force and promote the increase of farmers. at present, the "one village one products, a township thing" has scale, zhuanye village, zhuanye township (town) initial shape characteristic industry, a large number of farmers' professional cooperative organizations have established, the national average 2.7 each village cooperatives, joint-stock cooperative developing rapidly and and cooperatives, leading enterprises (base) farmers cooperative mode, drive the agricultural structure adjustment, share appreciation income also lead the farmers into the secondary and tertiary industries. from the perspective of development trend, the cooperative economy of different types should be developed by means of farmers' investment and investment, as the carrier of cooperative or joint-stock cooperatives. with the development path of "one village, one country and one industry", from specialized production to processing, marketing, service and creation of brand, the whole industrial chain is constructed and integrated operation is realized. conditional region, should be encouraged to make agricultural production, science and technology, ecology, tourism and other functions is a body comprehensive agriculture industry park, make it become the developing "one village one township, one thing" the effective carrier; government should introduce guide and standardize the business capital into agricultural rural development relevant opinions, encourage local governments to "one village one township, one thing" as the foundation, to attract capital and talent, promote the development of the 123 industrial convergence.
cultivating the leaders of rural economic development
overall, china's rural development lack of funds, lack of technology and labor force, more importantly, lack of economic, cultural and ethical leaders. it has been proved that the rural people who develop well are driven by "homo habilis". governments at all levels should adopt policies to encourage and preferential policies to foster rural economic development leaders and attract elites from different classes and talents to drive rural development. in addition to foster new type of agricultural management main body, to encourage migrant workers and university students, a veteran home business, make public entrepreneurship, peoples innovation strong power to promote the development of rural economy, is also solve the rural "three left behind" and "hollowing out" problem.
adhere to the concept of green development and promote the construction of agricultural ecological civilization
with rising incomes, the agricultural production has been gradually into consumer oriented, residents will be more strong demand for quality safety of agricultural products, and pollution damage to the ecological environment affects the quality and safety of agricultural products, lead to agricultural products export and domestic sales have been seriously affected. it is necessary to adhere to the concept of green development and promote the transformation and development of agriculture and the construction of agricultural ecological civilization. from the policy, finance, publicity and technical aspects of support, strengthen resource conservation and ecological restoration, speed up the formation of resource utilization efficiency, ecosystem stability, good production environment, product quality and safety of new pattern of agricultural development.
(6) seize the focus and promote the integration of urban and rural areas
urban and rural integration is a long-term goal of economic and social development and the foundation of rural and agricultural development. the development of urban and rural integration should be based on the following five aspects: first, based on planning, the development of urban and rural interaction will be realized through small and medium-sized towns. to promote the integration of urban and rural areas, we should coordinate urban and rural spatial distribution in accordance with the principles of planning and planning. combine small towns with "three agriculture" services. some small towns with distinctive resources and geographical advantages will be developed into professional towns, which will connect villages with counties and towns. the second is to combine the local realities and choose the development model. to promote urban and rural integration mode, not one size fits all, want to combine local resources and geographical advantages, relying on the advantage of resource development of characteristic industry, adjust measures to local conditions to choose suitable for the development of the local path. third, rural development and government support. in promoting urban and rural integration process, the government and enterprise support is necessary, but large surface in rural areas in china and a lot of people, a serious shortage of infrastructure and public service supply, supported by the government and enterprises to do so, all should be to stimulate the rural endogenous power, promote rural development. fourth, we will guide industrial and commercial capital into the integration and development of agriculture and agricultural industries. to attract business investment in agriculture, industry and commerce enterprise capital, technology, information and management advantages driving the development of rural industry is a successful experience, but should be obey the land red line, prevent the non-agricultural land and increase farmers' employment for the principle. fifth, cultivate rural economic development leaders. encourage urban elite, especially the migrant workers returning home business, back to the village development, through the country investment and enjoy the rural life, activate the rural consumption market, gave rise to the rural economy development. |
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