in the diets of consumers in our country, pork as the main meat consumer goods, in general, the demand elasticity is small, but some special events will affect the pig market demand in the short term, leading to hog prices rise or fall. for example, in the first half of 2003, because of the sars outbreak, the government's restrictions on pig trading and circulation directly affected the demand of pig market, which led to the falling price of live pigs. a subsequent outbreak of bird flu has led many consumers to shift their consumption demand for poultry to pork, leading to a rise in demand for pigs in 2004, raising the price of pigs. in the second half of 2008, as the global financial crisis hit, consumers' purchasing power declined and the demand for live pigs fell, leading to a sharp drop in pig prices.
the diversification of pig breeding mode
compared with the farmer, the average cost of scale cultivation is low, and the cultivation profit is higher, which makes the scale breeding have a strong resistance to price risk. scale farms, meanwhile, the degree of asset specialty is high and exit barriers is bigger, it also to some extent, limits the price decline from pigs and there a lot of sows, to reduce the number of breeding.
although in recent years, along with the rapid development of large-scale farms, retail pig farmers of live pig market share is declining, but retail pig farmers in the pig breeding industry in our country is still in the subject position. large retail pig farmers organization degree is low, in the process of pig breeding effective docking way, and the market due to forces, according to the information in the pig-breeding exist a certain degree of blindness, often according to the current live pig supply and demand and the market price to arrange the next phase of the production, when the pig prices, are scrambling to fill column, hog prices fall, the konglan raise, as a result, the next stage pig market supply and demand a reversal of cause cyclical volatility in pork prices.
the occurrence of pig disease
the occurrence of pig disease is different from the two kinds of fluctuations in the market price of pig market, or rise or decrease. in one case, the rise of the pig epidemic has led to an increase in mortality, thereby reducing market supply and driving up market prices. in another case, the occurrence of pig diseases has led to a decrease in demand for the pig market, a glut of pigs and a drop in prices. in fact, when a pig disease occurs, both cases tend to exist at the same time, and the final rise and fall of the pig price depends on the contrast between the reduction of supply and the degree of demand reduction. in june 2006, for example, the highly pathogenic blue-ear disease began to truncate the cause is unknown, lack of control and prevention, killed a large number of domestic pigs, pig breeding stock throughout the country greatly reduced, pig market collapse, at the same time, after the outbreak, some consumers demand for pork adopted a phased inhibition. because of the outbreak did not appear in the case of human-to-human transmission and deadly, there is no clear influence to human body health, so did not form in consumer panic, short supply, general hog prices rising since the second half of 2006. as to effectively control the rise in the price of live pigs and epidemic, the enthusiasm of farmers was out, so that the next phase of the pig market supply and demand, supply and demand change, gradually increasing the pig prices began to rise to fall.
changes in the cost of pig breeding
cost is the main component of price composition, is the minimum economic limit to set the price, and in general the price is positively proportional to the production cost. in pig breeding, the production cost of change will inevitably cause the periodic fluctuation of live pig price, when production cost is relatively rise, because of the reduced profit even unprofitable, a large number of pig farmers quit pig-producing areas, leading to the next phase of the pig market supplies, the live pig prices rise; however, when the cost of breeding is reduced, the breeding quantity of live pigs will rise, and the next stage of pig market price will be reduced due to the increase of pig supply. specifically, the cost of pig breeding by feed, piglets, artificial, epidemic prevention, health care, etc, will scale with free-range farmers comprehensive consideration, including corn, soybean meal feed costs accounted for the total cost of the live pig breeding in china, such as more than 70%, piglet costs accounted for about 20% of the total cost, artificial and disease prevention costs accounted for 10%. the ratio of pig grains is one of the important indicators to measure the cost of pig breeding in our country. the higher the ratio of pig grains to the higher the profit of pig raising, and the increase of pig breeding in the next stage.
(source: huaxia pig net) |
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